Couple of quick political points, as McCain would really need to change some things to make this election change, so not too much to discuss here.
In theory the incumbents to do worse in a down economy. This is what happened when Republicans picked up seats in the mid-term elections. Bush thought it was a mandate for his policies. It really was a vote against the current administration or any incumbents. There happened to be more Dems at the time. I predicted that back them based on this theory and while on some level it doesn't seem right this time, I have to assume the theory will old until broken.
What that could mean is that Obama wins the Presidency, but the Republicans take the Senate and pick up seats in the house. This is where republicans should turn their attention. McCain can't run a decent campaign. They recently asked for more money, I'm not going to give it to them so they can waste it with the garbage they are putting out. The economy has tanked since Democrats took over the house and senate. Their approval ratings are terrible. They have done little to nothing, and most of the something was bad for America. Republicans need to hang that performance on them and win those seats. The models say they will.
On McCain's campaign, it looks terrible. I can't figure it out. Here's my ad tip for him for the day.
Obama said he would reduce taxes on the middle class when he ran for the Senate, instead he voted to raise them on people making as little as 40K/year. He never authored a bill to reduce taxes, or on anything else. How can we trust him now?
Their current message is all over the map and doesn't really hit Obama. This really hits him, its the core of his message, and its not 'mean'.
Finally the upside of an Obama win.
My prediction after an Obama win is a declining economy, inflation, resulting in higher interest rates and 10%+ unemployment inside of two years. When that takes place Republicans could easily take back the House and Senate. That could lead to some fiscal responsibility like it did during the Clinton years.