Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The nothing new debate

Well one more debate is over. I've had sometime to reflect with out news or media to bias my opinion and wanted to get this written so I could see was being said.
My take was that McCain was the winner in a split decision. That said I don't think it will really help him. Obama did a good job, even on the points where is clearly wrong, he makes it sound good and had no problems. So as the leader in the race, nothing startling happened, he used all the talking points we heard before.
McCain needed to really beat on Obama about energy and his ties to F&F. He did that a little. But it was Obama who actually incorporated energy into more of his answers, and basically said I'm all for drilling and nuclear. So what the problem. Well there are lots, that we have discussed before when you look at the details, but it sounded like Barack is for nuclear and drilling and if he's elected America will get that so McCain isn't different there.
One thing I thought McCain said was Obama ran on Middle Class tax cuts for the Senate and never introduced them once elected. I think that should have been repeated several hundred more times. Instead McCain said look at our record. Well that's not clear enough, and Barack noted that McCain voted against energy bill ~26 times and voted with Bush on all the over spending budgets. So repeating the record stuff, I don't think played well.
So enough elect stuff. This one is pretty much cooked. Everyone needs to go out and vote, turnout is always critical. Local elections are taking and place and people should spend some time there. The prediction model that I have used (and back tested*) still says Obama wins by a good margin. There is no indication to think that will change unless something shocks the system in the next few weeks.

* Prediction model has been accurate for all post 1980 elections and would not be considered scientific however accurate in recent times.

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