Thursday, November 6, 2008

Dow didn't like the election news I guess

Two straight days of the DOW being down after the election has been closed. I guess the DOW didn't like the news. Of course the Obama camp will blame Bush for it after all he is President. The keen observer will not that that the value of the DOW is not based on today, but its based on the expectations of the future. The better Obama did in the polls the worse the DOW got and when the race got closer the DOW started to bounce back. Now that its over, we are seeing more pessimism.
A couple of things to note. Companies need to lay off people quickly before the end of the year and the congress changes the rules. We should see the big companies do that. Small business are already running tight, expect them to hold off hiring until closer to mid 2009 when they understand the rules. Plus big companies aren't buying as much of their stuff, so not many will have need to hire.
That should lead to at least another point rise in unemployment. Could be 7% before the end of the year or Q1, 2009. That's aggressive, but possible depending on the statements that come over the next few weeks.
Last for all youth and college kids that voted for Obama. You should reduced your chances of actually getting a job. If you don't graduate until May 2009. Maybe some companies will be hiring again, but its going to be harder than ever to justify hiring someone with no experience when so many people will be available that have it.

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